The guest lecturer, Josh Wolfe of Lux Capital, is from a VC firm focusing on nanotechnology. One thing firms try to do is forecast the next big wave of VC investment, and this is his firm's bet on that next wave.
Notes from Josh Wolfe's lunch keynote address on nanotechnology:
Things change as they get smaller in size.
Many large companies now have websites that explain their involvement in nanotechnology.
1 nanometer = 10 shoulder-to-shoulder hydrogen atoms.
So we are talking about manipulating atoms by aligning them.
Imagine being able to decide what a material will behave like by saying, let's change the behavior and interaction of its atoms.
Below a hundred nanometers is different – new things happen.
If you change the size of a particle, its behavior changes.
Cathode ray tubes and flat-panel displays are eliminated by nanotech monitors.
This will change many things in the world.
This will change the economics of manufacturing.
If you can take a process and move it from 100 steps to five, you'll save tons of time and money.
Nanotechnology exploits size-dependent properties to transform products.
E.g. Aluminum made 100 times stronger.
You can't see things at the nano level, since they are smaller than the wavelength of light.
The US government is spending more than ever on nanotech for military and other purposes.
Nanotech VC funding has gradually increased in the past several years.
Virtually all large manufacturers have a nanotech initiative.
There is more media attention to it now than ever.
There isn't a “market” for it, but rather there is a value chain.
Nanotech khakis: water resistant. You probably wash them 25-30 percent less often. 99 percent of the world does not know about this technology yet.
Cars: lighter body moldings, better fuel economy, etc.
Nanotech investing is important.
Diabetic: imagine that you might be able to fix that with nanotechnology.
The history of prediction regarding technology: we often think things will move fast, and then they move much faster.
Precipitous pruning: often, an industry will start out with few companies, then grow to large numbers, then shrink again as some companies get bigger and more powerful, killing off smaller ones.
There are derivative effects. Example: recipes, toll-booths and moats.
Designs – recipes – are more valuable than manufacturing.
Growth comes from new combinations of fixed resources.
Imagine all the elements. They can combine with each other in seemingly infinite ways. Same atoms, different configuration = greater use of space. Squeeze more economic value out of these innovations.
4 different atoms: 330 billion total recipes.
1,000 recipes/day = 1 million years.
We've barely begun to examine the possibilities of materials.
Awareness --> Adoption --> Adaptation.
Empower people with tools.
Create new products.
Cut manufacturing costs.
Unexpected ripple effects.
Large scale platform shift.
What about molecular computing power? After all, there are molecules in a teaspoon of water than there are teaspoons of water in all the oceans on earth.
We don't even understand (yet) why things self-assemble, but if we put the right atoms together, they just do.
What if you were warned against the production of DHMO ("dihydrogen monoxide"), a sinister compound that cannot be inhaled and can lead to natural disasters? Well, look at it another way: DHMO = dihydrogen monoxide = H2O = water!
There are trade-offs in all things.
How do you sell to the poor? e.g. P&G selling water purification tablets for very cheap (8 cents apiece).
Nanotechnology will change the world, and venture capital will focus upon it to a special extent in the coming decade.
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